A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
