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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. However, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the biggest shock.

But the latest field is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and longtime strugglers improving together. Under an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

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