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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd